Is the ‘Growth’ Trade Finally Over?

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Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 holds 10/29 close of 6,980
  • Holds 21-day EMA
  • Moving averages may reflect trend resumption, acceleration from consolidation
  • 9-day rate of change stays positive
  • Intermarket conditions:
    • 10-year Treasury yields stay below 4.25
    • VIX stays below 20
SPX_20260114a.jpg

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indictors.

The End of ‘Growth?’

  • 2/3 of S&P 500 members up in 2026
    • GOOGL, AMZN are only megacap growth stocks positive on year
  • Software -5% this month after 9.9% drop in November (biggest monthly drop since April 2022 as bear market took hold).
  • Communications index last made record high in Q3
  • Noteworthy stocks without 52-week highs in the last 3 months:
    • MSFT META NFLX APP INTU ADBE FTNT ADSK PYPL WDAY
  • Software and Communications are both lagging the S&P 500 in the last five years
  • Software and Communications are classic “secular” (non-cyclical) growth groups.
    • High-multiple companies, especially those tied to subscription revenue model
    • Subscription model has quietly been a backbone of tech stocks since ADBE adoption in 2012

    Upcoming Events

    • Fri 1/16: NAHB housing index.
      • Earnings: STT PNC
  • Mon 1/19: MLK day: Markets Closed
  • Tue 1/20:
    • Earnings: MMM DHI | NFLX UAL
  • Wed 1/21: Housing starts, Lisa Cook hearing in Supreme Court
    • Earnings: JNJ HAL
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    • Earnings: GE FCX PG

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    About the author

    David Russell

    David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.
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