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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 1/27.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

S&P 500 rallies 1.8%, the most since 11/6 (day after election)
Potential bullish flag after testing Election Day close
63-day rate of change continues positive run that began in November 2023
3-month consolidation phase potentially ending as breadth improves
S&P 500 members yesterday had the most:

52-week highs since 12/11
Members above 20-day MA since 12/4

Intermarket signals:

10-year Treasury yield stalls at 4.75% area from November 2023 and April 2024.

Inflation & Rates

CPI +0.3% in December. Y/Y core +3.2%. Both 0.1 point below estimates.

Shelter has smallest Y/Y gain since January 2022

John Williams of NY Fed: Inflation going to 2%, expectations are anchored
Goolsbee: Neutral rate is still lower (implies rate cuts)
UK inflation 0.1 point lower than expected, spurring rate-cut optimism
Empire index -12.6 in January, missing +3 estimate. New orders weak

Regulator Departures

Some noteworthy changes around the arrival of President Trump:

Leaving
Potential Replacement
Position

Lina Khan
Andrew Furguson
FTC Chair

Gary Gensler
Paul Atkins
SEC Chair

Paul Munter
N/A
SEC Chief Accountant

Michael Barr
N/A
Vice Chair for Supervision at Fed

News & Views

Financials jump on strong results: GS WFC JPM C BK BLK
FactSet: S&P 500 earnings likely to grow 14% in Q4, the most since Q4 of 2021.
MarketWatch: Trump SEC nominee Paul Atkins viewed as more favorable for financial sector
GS CEO David Solomon: Backlog in dealmaking, increased CEO confidence post-election
NVDA announces Quantum Day at GTC 2025 on 3/20

Comes after active CEO Jensen Huang expressed skepticism about quantum computing’s near-term prospects, which impacted related stocks in the field.

Upcoming Events

Fri 1/17: Housing starts, building permits

Earnings: SLB TFC

Mon 1/20: MLK Day – Market Closed
Tue 1/21:

 Premarket earnings: MMM SCHW KEY DHI
 Post market earnings: NFLX UAL

Wed 1/22:

Premarket earnings: JNJ PG

Thu 1/23: Jobless claims, crude oil inventories

Premarket earnings: FCX GE

Standardized Performances for ETFs mentioned above

ETF
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
+23.30%
+82.09%
+185.14%

As of December 31, 2024. Based on TradeStation Data.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

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