All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield | TradeStation

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 1/16.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

S&P 500 falls the most since 8/5, hits low of month
Prices under 8-, 21-day EMAs, 50-day MA after bearish outside day
Index swings 203 points (most since June 2020), following small range last week.

(3.5% on percentage basis, most since November 2022.)

MACD falling

Does Wilder’s RSI need to go oversold after 15 months?

Potential support at mid-November low of 5853
DJIA down for 10 straight sessions, longest decline since 1974.

Yesterday’s reversal was biggest candle (1389 points) since October 2022.

Key tech charts:

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remains in triangle pattern.
Tech sector fails to hold recent breakout

Intermarket perils:

10-year Treasury yield highest close since 5/31
U.S. dollar index closes at 25-month high
VIX climbs after bottoming above 12

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

10-Year Treasury Yield

10-year Treasury yield index ($TNX.X) challenges November high, falling trendline.

Actual yield is about 15bp above 2-year yield. Historical norms closer to 100 basis points.

Treasury auctions, deficit news could gain importance in New Year.

Fed Gets Hawkish

Cuts 25bp as expected
Dot plot for 2025: Goes from 100bp of cuts to 50bp of cuts
PCE estimate for 2025: Goes from 2.1% to 2.5%
Powell: “Once again, we’ve had a year-end projection for inflation and it’s kind of fallen apart as we approach the end of the year. Inflation has once again underperformed relative to expectations.”

Using the Platform

Breadth tools platform guide

Upcoming Events

Earnings this afternoon: FDX NKE
Fri 12/20: PCE
Tue 12/24: Durable goods orders, new home sales. **Market close at 1pm ET**
Wed 12/25: Merry Christmas! (Market Closed)

The post All Eyes on the 10-Year Treasury Yield appeared first on Market Insights.

TradeStation Securities, Inc. is an SEC-licensed broker dealer and a CFTC-licensed futures commission merchant (FCM), and a member of FINRA, SIPC, CME, NFA and several equities and futures exchanges, which offers to self-directed investors and traders Equities accounts for stocks, exchange-traded products (such as ETFs) and equity and index options, and Futures accounts for commodity and financial futures and futures options (TradeStation Securities does not offer Crypto accounts).

TradeStation Crypto, Inc. is neither a securities broker dealer nor an FCM, and offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses (TradeStation Crypto is not a member of FINRA, SIPC, CME, NFA or any equities or futures exchange, and does not offer Equities or Futures accounts).

TradeStation Technologies, Inc. is a software development company which offers analytics subscriptions that self-directed investors and traders can use to chart, analyze and design back-tested strategies for Equities, Options, Futures, Forex and Crypto markets (TradeStation Technologies is not a financial services company).

You Can Trade, Inc. is an online educational, news and entertainment media publication service that seeks to provide to the public a marketplace of potentially actionable investment and trading content, ideas, demonstrations and informational tools. You Can Trade is not an investment, trading or financial adviser or pool, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, investment research company, digital asset or cryptocurrency exchange or broker, or any other kind of financial or money services company, and does not give any investment, trading or financial advice, or research analyses or recommendations, or make any judgments, hold any opinions, or make any other recommendations, about whether you should purchase, sell, own or hold any security, futures contract or other derivative, or digital asset or digital asset derivative, or any class, category or sector of any of the foregoing, or whether you should make any allocation of your invested capital between or among any of the foregoing.

TradeStation Crypto accepts only cryptocurrency deposits, and no cash (fiat currency) deposits, for account funding. In order for you to purchase cryptocurrencies using cash, or sell your cryptocurrencies for cash, in a TradeStation Crypto account, you must also have qualified for, and opened, a TradeStation Equities account with TradeStation Securities so that your cryptocurrency purchases may be paid for with cash withdrawals from, and your cryptocurrency cash sale proceeds may be deposited in, your TradeStation Securities Equities account. Therefore, if you want to open a TradeStation Crypto account, you must also have an Equities account with TradeStation Securities. This cash in your TradeStation Securities Equities account may also, of course, be used for your equities and options trading with TradeStation Securities.

TradeStation and YouCanTrade account services, subscriptions and products are designed for speculative or active investors and traders, or those who are interested in becoming one. No offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivative or futures products of any kind, cryptocurrencies or other digital assets, or any type of trading or investment advice, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or in any manner endorsed by any TradeStation Group company, and the information made available on or in any TradeStation Group company website or other publication or communication is not an offer or solicitation of any kind in any jurisdiction where such TradeStation Group company or affiliate is not authorized to do business. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, futures options, or crypto); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system, platform and software errors or attacks, internet traffic, outages and other factors. The trademarks “TradeStation®,” “YouCanTrade” and “SheCanTrade,” as well as other trademarks, domain names and other proprietary intellectual property of TradeStation Group companies, are owned by TradeStation Technologies. The proprietary TradeStation platform is offered by TradeStation Securities for Equities (including equity options) and Futures trading. TradeStation Crypto offers its online platform trading services, and TradeStation Securities offers futures options online platform trading services, through unaffiliated third-party platform applications and systems licensed to TradeStation Crypto and TradeStation Securities, respectively, which are permitted to be offered by those TradeStation companies for use by their customers.

Please also read carefully the agreements, disclosures, disclaimers and assumptions of risk presented to you separately by TradeStation Securities, TradeStation Crypto, TradeStation Technologies, and You Can Trade on the TradeStation Group company site and the separate sites, portals and account or subscription application or sign-up processes of each of these TradeStation Group companies. They contain important information, rights and obligations, as well as important disclaimers and limitations of liability, and assumptions of risk, by you that will apply when you do business with these companies.

×