Market Insights

Stocks are trying to stabilize amid major uncertainty about tariffs and the economy.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent between Friday, March 14, and Friday, March 21. It was the first gain in five weeks.

Negative headlines on tariffs and government policy continued. However, much of the news reflects expectations and uncertainty rather than hard facts.

For example, Nike (NKE) and Accenture (ACN) reported strong quarterly results but fell on weak guidance. NKE cited tariffs and weaker growth, while ACN said government spending cuts would hurt future business. Other companies including Polaris (PII) and Valmont Industries (VMI) received analyst downgrades based on potential tariff risks.

The National Association of Homebuilders said import duties will add $9,200 to house prices and developer Related Group warned construction costs may increase 20 percent.

New “policies would impose, each in their own way, a significant contraction on different sectors of the economy,” UCLA Anderson School of Management economist Clement Bohr wrote on Monday. While he saw “no signs of an imminent recession,” he warned of slower consumer spending and the risk of a “stagflationary” downturn.

Waiting for April 2

Attention is focused on next Wednesday, April 2, when President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on a broad range of countries. That event could provide greater clarity on his trade policy and reduce uncertainty. It could also keep traders on edge in coming sessions, which have few important economic reports.

Last week had some other noteworthy events but they didn’t have big impacts given how much the S&P 500 had declined in the preceding month. Weak retail sales reflected slow consumer spending, but initial jobless claims seemed to show the labor market is holding up. Housing starts and building permits surprised to the upside.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and issued an ambiguous forward-looking statement. Policymakers expected slower growth and higher inflation, but continue to anticipate two rate cuts this year. They also reduced quantitative tightening (“QT”), a dovish move that pushed Treasury yields lower. The actions potentially leave space for the Fed to move in either direction. In other words, “data dependency” may continue.

Boeing Takes Off

Boeing (BA) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 last week after being selected to build the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (“NGAD”) fighter. Southwest Airlines (LUV) was the second-best performer as investors continued to embrace its turnaround plan, which includes cost cuts and fees for checked luggage.

Mosaic (MOS) rose on a Barclays upgrade, following a similar move by J.P. Morgan earlier in the month. Darden Restaurants (DRI) gained on strong guidance.

Energy was the top sector last week (and is leading in 2025) as geopolitical tensions lifted crude oil and strong demand supported natural gas. Financials also bounced. Gold miners climbed as the metal crossed $3,000 per ounce for the first time.

Micron’s Margin Miss

Technology was the weakest sector. Chinese stocks and chipmakers also lagged.

Incyte (INCY) was the biggest decliner in the S&P 500 after a Phase 3 study of its skin drug missed some expectations. Steelmaker Nucor (NUE) dropped after preannouncing weak first-quarter earnings. Gartner (IT) fell after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth terminated a contract with the IT consultancy.

Micron Technology (MU) slid last week after forecasting margins below estimates. It followed similar news by Nvidia (NVDA) a month before.

FedEx (FDX) also dropped after cutting guidance amid weak business-shipping demand.

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Charting the Market

Last week was the first week in four that the S&P 500 made a higher high without making a lower low.

Some chart watchers may look for the index to stabilize, especially after completing a 10 percent correction and holding 5,500.

Others may think it’s consolidating after the drop, with risk of further downside.

For example, the S&P 500 probed above 5,700 three times last week but failed to close above it. That level is potentially important because it was near the November low. The highs were also near the March 6 low. Is old support becoming new resistance?

The index is also below its 200-day moving average and the 21-day exponential moving average is falling from above.

Traders looking for rebounds may eye roughly 5759, which would represent a 50 percent retracement of the recent decline. Remaining below that level could potentially confirm the bearish direction.

Regardless of the technicals, political news and statements from the White House could be the main driver of prices. That could be especially true leading up the April 2 tariff announcement.

The Week Ahead

This week has few important events on the calendar, but there could be unscheduled developments around trade policy or government cuts. It’s also the last full week of the first quarter.

Nothing is slated for today.

Tomorrow morning brings consumer confidence and new-home sales.

Durable goods orders and crude-oil inventories are on Wednesday. Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Chewy (CHWY) report earnings.

Thursday features initial jobless claims, the final revision of fourth-quarter gross domestic product and pending home sales. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) reports earnings in the postmarket.

Friday brings the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), a key measure of inflation. Personal spending and income are also part of the report.