Market Insights

U.S. stocks are trying to stabilize before two key events this week. Global equities could also be taking leadership.

The S&P 500 declined 2.3 percent between Friday, March 7, and Friday, March 14. It was the fourth straight negative week, matching previous losing streaks in August and September 2022. However, the index still cut its maximum loss in half after completing a 10 percent correction from the previous record high on February 19.

Tariff and trade worries dominated the news again. President Trump said he was “not going to bend at all” on tariffs, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said causing a recession may be “worth it.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made similar comments.

Headlines like that drove consumer sentiment to its lowest level since November 2022. Strategists including David Kostin at Goldman Sachs and Ed Yardini cut targets on the S&P 500. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and bond-investing giant Pimco also warned of potential recession risks.

However, hard data (not based on surveys) seemed less negative:

• The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent, below the 0.1 percent projected by economists. Year-over-year shelter costs also rose at the slowest pace since December 2021. That could help lower overall CPI because shelter accounts for about 35 percent of the basket.
• Producer prices (PPI) were unexpectedly flat and turned negative excluding food and energy.
• Initial jobless were forecast to rise but inched lower — despite government layoffs.

Nvidia and the Fed

This week may have a different tone because of two major events.

First, Nvidia (NVDA) holds its key GTC AI conference. It runs all week, with at least two highlights:

• Tomorrow: CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at 1 p.m. ET
• Thursday is dedicated to quantum computing.

Second, the Federal Reserve issues its “dot plot” at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Attention is likely to focus on the summary of economic projections, which includes views of future rates, inflation and unemployment. This document could help confirm hopes of a rate cut on June 18.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Global Stocks

While political news in the U.S. has been mostly weighed on stocks, events have been more positive overseas.

Brazil raised its economic growth forecast and German lawmakers agreed to a historic debt agreement. Stocks associated with those countries, along with China and several other nations, outperformed the S&P 500 by wide margins. The price action seemed to follow established trends of investors rotating away from U.S. stocks toward lower-multiple foreign companies. (See this TradingView idea on the U.S. dollar for more.)

Last week additionally saw rallies in gold, silver and mining companies. (Gold touched $3,000 per ounce for the first time.)

Citi predicted further upside in copper prices and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) built a position in mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) for clients. Within the S&P 500, energy was the top sector, climbing 2.6 percent. That’s also consistent with a focus on global growth.

Broad Declines

More than three-quarters of the S&P 500’s members fell last week, according to TradeStation data.

Economically sensitive groups like airlines, retailers and consumer discretionaries fell the most.

Teradyne (TER), Delta Airlines (DAL) and Adobe (ADBE) led to the index lower after issuing weak guidance.

Apple (AAPL) had its biggest weekly drop in 2-1/2 years after delaying the launch of AI in its Siri assistant until next year.

Intel (INTC) rose the most after hiring Lin-Bu Tan as CEO, potentially ending a leadership vacuum at the firm. Tan was formerly CEO of Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), successfully growing the semiconductor-software company between 2009 and 2021.

Aside from energy, utilities were the only domestic sector to rise last week.

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Charting the Market

The S&P 500’s recent decline potentially represents a break in an uptrend that started in late 2023.

For example, the index revisited levels from 27 weeks prior in mid-September. That was almost twice the interval of the August drop, making it the deepest pullback since late 2023.

Next, prices slid below the 200-day moving average and Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit an oversold condition. Both of those technical patterns last occurred in October-November 2023.

Chart watchers looking for a rebound may eye the 5733-5773 price zone, between the lows of January 13 and March 4. It’s also near the 200-day moving average.

A potential level to the downside may be the September low of 5403.

The Week Ahead

This week brings a mix of data and earnings aside from the NVDA event and Fed meeting.

Retail sales and NAHB’s housing-market index are this morning.

Housing starts and building permits are tomorrow. Chinese EV maker XPeng (XPEV) also issues results.

Wednesday morning brings crude-oil inventories, followed by the Fed meeting in the afternoon.

Thursday features initial jobless claims and existing home sales. Micron Technology (MU), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) reports earnings in the afternoon.

Nothing important is scheduled for Friday.