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Market Trends | Markets
Fear Makes a Comeback After 6 Positive Weeks: Market Trends
David Russell
October 24, 2024

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 breaks last week’s low of 5,804 as earnings and election approach
  • Index had risen for six weeks, longest positive streak of 2024
  • Potential support around 5674, near October low and July high
  • MACD falling
  • Stocks fall after spike in new 52-week highs, which also happened before April and August pullbacks.
    • Did strong breadth mark a potential top?
  • Major event clusters:
    • 10/30: Big tech earnings start (AMD / GOOGL)
    • 11/1: Payrolls
    • 11/5: Election
    • 11/7: Fed meeting
  • Intermarket:
    • Rising 10-year Treasury yield creates new risk
      • Higher weekly low in mid-September vs April 2023 despite Fed cutting
    • Nasdaq-100’s failure to break out is potential risk
    • 10/15 bearish day in tech/chips confirmed as resistance
S&P 500, daily chart, with key patterns and signals

Key Events

  • Gold miners vie with chipmakers for YTD % gain
  • All major sectors negative in the last week.
  • Reuters: U.S.-China “tech war” likely regardless of election winner
  • AAPL: Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone 16 orders cut 6% for next 3 quarters
  • Fiscal worries mount:
    • Bloomberg: Higher Treasury yields show fiscal deficit fears
    • Paul Tudor Jones expects “market reckoning” about deficit after election
    • El-Erian: Gold rally shows “pipes being built to go around” the U.S. dollar
  • Housing weakness:
    • Existing home miss estimates, hitting 14-year low
    • PHM falls as incentives squeeze profits
  • IBM, STX post-earnings drops may reflect weaker sentiment

Upcoming Events

Note: Roughly 1/3 of the S&P 500 reports earnings next week

  • Earnings this afternoon: WDC COF
  • Fri 10/25 earnings: CNC CL HCA NYCB
  • Tues 10/29:
    • Premarket earnings: MCD PYPL
    • Postmarket earnings: *AMD* *GOOGL* FSLR SNAP RDDT
  • Wed 10/30: GDP, crude-oil inventories
    • Premarket earnings: CAT
    • Postmarket earnings: *META* *MSFT* AMGN COIN HOOD SBUX ROKU
  • Thu 10/31: Initial jobless claims
    • Premarket earnings: MA MRK GNRC UBER
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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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