Market Insights

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 has risen in 10 of the last 12 days. New records in nine of the last 10 days.
• Breadth widens:
  • New 52-week highs increase
  • Advance/Decline line made a new high on 7/16 for first time in two months
• Potential support at
  • 5577: Low of 7/11 outside day
  • 5562: Weekly low from 7/8
• Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), 9-day rate of change consistent with earlier uptrends.
• Sentiment pendulum has swung back to widespread bullishness (potential contrary indicator)

News & Views

• June economic data suggests expansion (not stagnation) after inflation unexpectedly fell:
  • Retail sales ex-auto +0.4% vs -0.1% estimate. Headline number inline amid lower gasoline prices. May revised higher.
  • Housing starts, building permits, industrial production also beat forecasts
• Chips fall on political news:
  • Trump: Taiwan should pay for its own defense
  • Bloomberg: Biden may restrict exports of chip-making equipment
  • Will both candidates attack China into November?
  • … but Intel (INTC) gains as other chip stocks fall.
• General Motors (GM) boosts Escalade V8 production one day after abandoning goal of 1 million EVs.
• Fedspeak: Powell, Kugler, Waller get more dovish
• Bankers optimistic:
  • Solomon (of GS): “early innings” of investment banking rebound
  • King (formerly of TFC) sees net interest margin “trough,” “quarters” or “years” of improvement
• FactSet: S&P 500 earnings likely to rise 12% in Q2, which would be highest in 2 years.

Upcoming Events

• Fri 7/19:
  • Earnings: AXP CMA HAL SLB HBAN RF TRV
• Mon 7/22:
  • Earnings: TFC VZ
• Tue 7/23: Existing home sales
  • Earnings: GM, UPS, FCX, GOOGL, TSLA, STX, TXN
• Wed 7/24: Crude oil inventories, new home sales
  • Earnings: T, NEM, NOW, IBM
• Thu 7/25: *GDP*, jobless claims, durable goods
  • Earnings: AAL, LUV
• Fri 7/26: PCE

Using the Platform

Spread indicators are available on Chart Analysis. They compare symbols included in the chart under Data menu.

Ratio analysis can show relative performance between symbols in the market, highlighting patterns like the recent outperformance in large-cap growth stocks. TradeStation has two versions of spread analysis:

• Spread – Diff: Show simple difference (one minus the other)
• Spread – Ratio: Shows ratio (one divided by the other)

To add: Studies → Add Study… 

Notes:

• Analyzed symbols can be adjusted in Customize Indicator → Inputs.
• Symbols are identified as Data1, Data2, etc. These can be seen via Data → Edit Symbol…
• Note: Symbols can be hidden via Customize Symbol → Scaling → Sub-graph → Hidden

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement visit www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureFutures. 

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. 

Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.