Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 has retraced about half its move since breaking 2022 high
• S&P 500 testing bullish gap from 2/22, when Nvidia (NVDA) reported
• Index showing significant “gloom”:
  • Just 36 members above their 20-day MA, 138 above 50-day MA. Comparable to late October, early November.
  • Longest losing streak (4 days) since January
  • RSI, 9-day Rate of Change lowest since late October
• Intermarket: 10-year yield (TNX) potentially stalling at February gap down

Key News

• March retail sales more than 2x estimates, January revised up
• March housing starts, building permits miss by wide margin
• IMF raises 2024 global growth from 2.9% to 3.2%
• China Q1 GDP +5.3% vs +4.8% estimate
• Rates:
  • Powell sees lack of progress on inflation, but…bu
  • 20-year Treasury auction is better than feared
  • Atlanta Fed Business inflation expectations slow as unit cost growth “significantly decreased.”
• United Airlines (UAL) earnings, revenue beat. Capex slashed from $9bln to $6.5bln
  • UAL rallies the most since November 11/9/20 (Covid vaccine announcement)
• Copper gaining on signs of Chinese production cuts
• ASML (ASML) drops on revenue miss
• Travelers (TRV) drops on storm losses
• Bank of America (BAC) drops on CRE losses

Signals Scan

• First Solar (FSLR) holds December high with earnings 5/1
  • Optimism about tariffs on Chinese panels
• Micron Technology (MU) holds rising 21-day EMA
• Cameco (CCJ) may have breakout potential with earnings 4/30
• Energy names touch 21-day EMA: XOM COP MPC
• Ford Motor (F) tries to hold weekly support at $12
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) accelerates lower after breaking support
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) holds 50-day MA

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: NFLX, ISRG
• Tue 4/23: New home sales
  • Premarket earnings: GM
  • Postmarket earnings: TSLA, STX, V
• Wed 4/24: Durable goods, crude oil inventories
  • Premarket earnings: BA, T
  • Postmarket earnings: **META**, F, NOW, IBM, LRCX
• Thu 4/25: **GDP**, initial jobless claims
  • Premarket earnings: CAT, AAL, MRK
  • Postmarket earnings: **MSFT**, **GOOGL**, INTC, WDC

Using the Platform: MA speed

• “MA speed” is a custom indicator included in the zip file.
• It’s used in the chart on “MT ES” workspace, but can also work in RadarScreen
• Consider these adjustments in “Customize Indicator” dialog:
  • General → Load additional data for accumulative calculations
  • Style → Change “MA Change” and “Avg change” to “Percentage”
  • Inputs → MA_length: change to 20
• This can potentially find stocks moving steadily over shorter terms
  • These can be screened with other indicators in the zip file like 5d, EMA test, MA test and Keltner Pullback