Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 4/14. Next Market Trends is on 4/17.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 may face range between roughly 4,950 and 5,500
  • 4,950 is near weekly lows from late February and April 2024
  • 5,491 is mid-point of range so far in 2025, opening price on 4/3
• At its low this week, just 6 members of the S&P 500 above 20-day MA, matching low end of decade-long range
• Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit the lowest since February 2020 on Tuesday
• Intermarket:
  • 10-year Treasury yield back above June 2008 high of 4.32
  • VIX peaks slightly above 60
    • Has the 10-year yield made a higher low as S&P 500 makes a lower high?
    • Will S&P 500 remain rangebound with VIX still above 20?

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Tariffs Delayed

• Trump lowers most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, pending negotiations
• China rate hiked to 125%
• Policy reversal followed overnight Treasury selloff
• Scott Bessent: Last week’s rates were a “ceiling”
• Positive takeaways:
  • Maximum tariff rate known
  • Potential pivot to tax cuts
  • Could there be a “wall of worry” into earnings?
• Negative takeaways:
  • Ongoing trade war with China
  • Uncertainty about tariffs amid 90-day pause
  • Inflation expectations potentially rooted

Views Before the Reversal

• Jamie Dimon warned tariffs made recession “a likely outcome.”
• Goldman Sachs warned of recession risk and further downside potential
  • Withdrawn after Trump reversal
• Vanguard warned of “dancing with recession.”
• Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed/non-voter) warned tariffs made it harder to cut rates
• Fitch warns of tariff impact on credit profiles of retailer and consumer
• Reuters/Ipsos poll: 73% of Americans see tariffs lifting prices
• Reuters: 10-year Treasury yield premium reflects anxiety about U.S. creditworthiness
• CNBC noted potential chaos at ports with orders rejected
• DAL, WMT withdrew guidance amid uncertainty

Upcoming Events

• Fri 4/11: PPI
  • Earnings: JPM WFC MS BLK BK
• Mon 4/14: GS
• Tue 4/15: BAC, C, JNJ
• Wed 4/16: Retail sales, crude-oil inventories, NAHB housing index
• Thu 4/17: Jobless claims, housing starts/building permits
  • Earnings: TSM AXP | NFLX
• Fri 4/18: Market closed (Good Friday)