Market Insights

Downloads are available here. 4-chart index workspace is here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 3/31.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 stalls at 21-day EMA, January low
  • Has old support become new resistance?
• Recent bounce removed oversold condition
  • Was last week’s bounce a pause in downtrend?
• Faster MAs under slower MAs
• Intermarket: 10-year Treasury yield closed 3/26 at highest level since 2/24
• Potential downside levels:
  • 5505: 3/13 low
  • 5403: 9/6 low

S&P 500, with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

• Gloomy outlooks:
  • Moody’s: U.S. budget deficits, debt becoming less affordable.
    • Will Moody’s join S&P, Fitch in stripping USA of AAA status?
  • Deutsche Bank: 43% chance of recession
    • Flashback: “Sahm rule” (recession indicator) triggered in July as unemployment rose 50bp from low
  • Vanguard cuts GDP 2025 estimate from 2.1% to 1.7%
  • CNBC survey: 60% of CFOs see recession this year, up from 7% in Q4.
    • Will CFO gloom translate into earnings pessimism ?
  • Barclays cuts SPX target from 6,600 to 5,900 as “bear case” morphs into “base case”. Tariffs seen lowering growth, lifting inflation.
  • BABA Chair Tsai: Potential data center bubble
• NY Fed: 9.7 million student borrowers become delinquent after pandemic pause ends
• Musalem: Inflation may stall above target amid tariff risk
• March consumer confidence of 92.9 misses 94.2 estimate
• Potential risk to global stocks:
  • Europe: Reciprocal tariffs
  • China: Crackdown on ocean shippers, Venezuelan oil, Iran sanctions

Upcoming Events

• Earnings this afternoon: LULU
• Fri 3/28: PCE inflation, personal income/spending
• Mon 3/31: Q1 ends
• Tues 4/1: ISM manufacturing
• Wed 4/2: Reciprocal tariffs announced, ADP employment report, crude-oil inventories
• Thu 4/3: Jobless claims, ISM services