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Energy Market Trends Stocks
Are Energy Stocks Taking Leadership?
David Russell
March 20, 2025

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 3/24.

Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 stalls below 5700
  • Has Nov. 4-5 range (election) gone from support to resistance?
  • Another potential range at 5733 (3/4 low) to 5773 (1/13 low)

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Fed Plays for Time

  • Fed lowers GDP estimate from 2.1% → 1.7%
  • Fed raises core PCE estimate from 2.5% → 2.8%
  • Fed cuts QT from $25B → $5B (only “dovish” move)
  • Dot plot incrementally hawkish but still sees 2 cuts in 2025.
  • Changes from December to March:
    • No cuts: Up from 1 → 4
    • 1 cut: Up from 3 → 4
    • 3 cuts: Down from 3 → 2
    • 4-5 cuts: Down from 2 → 0
  • Will Powell wait for more inflation numbers and verbally guide in May?
Sector Valuations & Performance
Sector P/E ratio
(Trailing)		 YTD %
Energy 8.9 +8.4%
Financials 12.5 +2.6%
Materials 16 +3.6%
Communications 16 +0.3%
Healthcare 17 +6.8%
S&P 500 18 -3.5%
Utilities 18 +4.3%
Industrials 18.5 +1.4%
Consumer Staples 20 +1.5%
Technology 24 -7.6%
Consumer Discretionary 24 -12%
Real Estate 34 +3.2%
Sources: ETFdb.com / VettaFi, TradeStation data

Energy in Focus

  • Energy is the top-performing sector in 2025 and only positive sector in March as of March 19.
  • Lowest price/earnings ratio
  • Potential beneficiary of stagflation
  • Potential beneficiary of global rotation, geopolitical risk
  • Ninepoint portfolio manager Eric Nuttall on CNBC: U.S. shale production starting to peak, supply crisis coming.
  • Natural gas advancing on LNG exports, depleted storage
  • Find energy stocks with Scanner:
    • Symbol universe → “All Stocks
    • < Select Criteria > → Indicator → Sector = “Energy”

Upcoming Events

  • Sun 3/23-Mon 3/24: China Development forum
  • Tue 3/25: Consumer confidence
  • Wed 3/26: Durable goods, crude oil inventories
    • Earnings: DLTR CHWY
  • Thu 3/27: Initial jobless claims
  • **FURTHER OUT**: 4/2 Reciprocal tariff news
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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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