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Market Trends Stocks
Chips Gain Before Nvidia Results
David Russell
February 20, 2025

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 2/24.

Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 crosses 6,119 as volatility fades
  • MACD, RSI, 9-day rate of change (ROC) steadily push higher
  • Potential dearth of macro-level news before State of the Union on 3/4 (see below for more)

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Chips Gain Before Big Events

  • Semiconductors had lagged since July but outperforming in last 2 weeks.
  • INTC jumps on takeover / breakup speculation
  • ADI earnings beat amid “improving cyclical dynamics and numerous new wins.”
  • LRCX, KLAC cross 200-day MAs
  • SMCI rallies after promising financial statements by extended deadline
  • MCHP climbs 10 percent no apparent news (biggest gain in 2+ years)
  • Upcoming events:
    • NVDA earnings after the closing bell next Wed 2/26
    • 3/17 – 3/21: NVDA GTC AI conference
    • 3/20: First Quantum Day

News & Events

  • Rubio eyes ending sanctions on Russia
    • Could potentially impact global stocks
  • BP gains on Elliott activist pressure
  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment plunges on tariff fears
  • Fed minutes suggest policymakers still waiting for March data
    • Cleveland Fed NowCast: PCE change could halve to 0.19 percent this month
  • Megacaps at support?
    • MSFT holds $405: Q4 low
    • GOOGL holds $183: “Willow” AI chip gap on 12/10
    • AMZN holds bottom of Keltner Channel
  • JLL CEO on CNBC sees “pretty nice recovery cycle for commercial real estate which should continue over next few quarters.”
    • “FOMO”, “dry powder” as demand rebounds.

Upcoming Events

  • Earnings tonight: RIVN NU NEM CELH
  • Fri 2/21: Earnings home sales
  • Sun 2/23: German elections
  • Tue 2/25: Consumer confidence
  • Wed 2/26: Crude-oil inventories, new home sales
    • Earnings: LOW TJX |  **NVDA** CRM IONQ EBAY SNOW APA
  • Thu 2/27: GDP revision, jobless claims, durable-goods orders

Longer-term items to remember:

  • Tue 3/4: State of the Union
  • Fri 3/7: Payrolls
  • Wed 3/12: CPI
  • 3/17 – 3/21: NVDA GTC AI conference
    • 3/20: First Quantum Day
  • Wed 3/19: Fed + Dotplot
Tags:

About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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