Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 1/16.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 falls the most since 8/5, hits low of month
• Prices under 8-, 21-day EMAs, 50-day MA after bearish outside day
• Index swings 203 points (most since June 2020), following small range last week.
  • (3.5% on percentage basis, most since November 2022.)
• MACD falling
  • Does Wilder’s RSI need to go oversold after 15 months?
• Potential support at mid-November low of 5853
• DJIA down for 10 straight sessions, longest decline since 1974.
  • Yesterday’s reversal was biggest candle (1389 points) since October 2022.
• Key tech charts:
  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remains in triangle pattern.
  • Tech sector fails to hold recent breakout
• Intermarket perils:
  • 10-year Treasury yield highest close since 5/31
  • U.S. dollar index closes at 25-month high
  • VIX climbs after bottoming above 12

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

10-Year Treasury Yield

• 10-year Treasury yield index ($TNX.X) challenges November high, falling trendline.
  • Actual yield is about 15bp above 2-year yield. Historical norms closer to 100 basis points.
• Treasury auctions, deficit news could gain importance in New Year.

Fed Gets Hawkish

• Cuts 25bp as expected
• Dot plot for 2025: Goes from 100bp of cuts to 50bp of cuts
• PCE estimate for 2025: Goes from 2.1% to 2.5%
• Powell: “Once again, we’ve had a year-end projection for inflation and it’s kind of fallen apart as we approach the end of the year. Inflation has once again underperformed relative to expectations.”

Using the Platform

• Breadth tools platform guide

Upcoming Events

• Earnings this afternoon: FDX NKE
• Fri 12/20: PCE
• Tue 12/24: Durable goods orders, new home sales. **Market close at 1pm ET**
• Wed 12/25: Merry Christmas! (Market Closed)