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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 breaks last week’s low of 5,804 as earnings and election approach
- Index had risen for six weeks, longest positive streak of 2024
- Potential support around 5674, near October low and July high
- MACD falling
- Stocks fall after spike in new 52-week highs, which also happened before April and August pullbacks.
- Did strong breadth mark a potential top?
- Major event clusters:
- 10/30: Big tech earnings start (AMD / GOOGL)
- 11/1: Payrolls
- 11/5: Election
- 11/7: Fed meeting
- Intermarket:
- Rising 10-year Treasury yield creates new risk
- Higher weekly low in mid-September vs April 2023 despite Fed cutting
- Nasdaq-100’s failure to break out is potential risk
- 10/15 bearish day in tech/chips confirmed as resistance
- Rising 10-year Treasury yield creates new risk
Key Events
- Gold miners vie with chipmakers for YTD % gain
- All major sectors negative in the last week.
- Reuters: U.S.-China “tech war” likely regardless of election winner
- AAPL: Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone 16 orders cut 6% for next 3 quarters
- Fiscal worries mount:
- Bloomberg: Higher Treasury yields show fiscal deficit fears
- Paul Tudor Jones expects “market reckoning” about deficit after election
- El-Erian: Gold rally shows “pipes being built to go around” the U.S. dollar
- Housing weakness:
- Existing home miss estimates, hitting 14-year low
- PHM falls as incentives squeeze profits
- IBM, STX post-earnings drops may reflect weaker sentiment
Upcoming Events
Note: Roughly 1/3 of the S&P 500 reports earnings next week
- Earnings this afternoon: WDC COF
- Fri 10/25 earnings: CNC CL HCA NYCB
- Tues 10/29:
- Premarket earnings: MCD PYPL
- Postmarket earnings: *AMD* *GOOGL* FSLR SNAP RDDT
- Wed 10/30: GDP, crude-oil inventories
- Premarket earnings: CAT
- Postmarket earnings: *META* *MSFT* AMGN COIN HOOD SBUX ROKU
- Thu 10/31: Initial jobless claims
- Premarket earnings: MA MRK GNRC UBER
