Market Insights

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 8/5.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 holds 50-day moving average
• New record high for advance / decline line
• Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns to neutral
• Stochastics rebound from oversold.
• Intermarket analysis: 2-year Treasury yields fall to lowest since February
  • Anticipates Fed move next month
  • Steeper yield curve is potential positive for banks

Small Caps vs Megacaps

• Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 by 8.9 percentage points in July, the most since February 2000.
  • 74% of members above 50-day MA
  • 12% of members made new 52-week highs on Wednesday
• Nasdaq-100 underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.7 percentage points in July, the most since December 2022
  • 50% of members above 50-day MA
  • 7% of members made new 52-week highs on Wednesday
• See “MT Breadth” workspace for more

News & Views

• Powell: September “on the table” if data keeps improving.
  • Inflation is now “somewhat” elevated and unemployment has “moved up.”
• Microsoft (MSFT) earnings beat but Azure disappoints.
• Meta Platforms (META) beats amid signs of slowing ad market.
• Inflation & rates:
  • ADP’s private-sector payrolls report shows slower wage gains
  • U.S. Treasury doesn’t increase size of planned bond sales
  • Q2 employment cost index +0.9% vs +1% estimate
  • Pending home sales rise; listings expected to increase
• Chip news:
  • Reuters reports the U.S. will ease chip-export restrictions to exempt allied countries.
  • AMD beats estimates as data-center revenue more than doubles
  • QCOM beats on bounces on handset strength

Using the Platform

Moving average studies can illustrate trends by comparing fast and slow moving averages.

• MovAvg Order: Plots to comparison between two moving averages in RadarScreen
• 2 ma ratio: Plots ratio between two moving averages in RadarScreen and Chart Analysis.

Notice how some large growth stocks have potentially bearish short-term readings.

Upcoming Events

• Thu 8/1 earnings: AAPL, AMZN, MCHP
• Fri 8/2: Non-farm payrolls
• Mon 8/5: ISM manufacturing
  • Earnings: PLTR CSX
• Wed 8/7: Crude-oil inventories
  • Earnings: DIS, SHOP
• Thu 8/8: Jobless claims
  • Earnings: LLY, DDOG

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.