Market Insights

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Check out our new webinar “State of the Market,” launching on Monday.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 revisits mid-June price range, 50-day MA
• Lowest RSI since early May suggests overbought condition has faded
• Index down 5 of last 6 sessions. 2.9% below record high.
• Wednesday was first 2% drop in 356 sessions, the longest streak since February 2018, according to “Bars since X% move“.
• Potential support at June 13 low of 5402

Market Rotation in New Half

• Real estate, the only negative sector in 1H, leads in 2H
• Banks, biotechnology, housing have turned higher in 2H
• Chips lag in 2H after leading in 1H
• Communications and technology, the top sectors in 1H, are worst-performing sectors in 2H
• Health care, consumer staples, utilities, REITs near 52-week highs

News & Views

• Citi: Productivity gains may help S&P 500 earnings
• Tom Lee of Fundstrat: Small caps could rally 40% by end of summer
• Reuters: Chinese rate cuts are not boosting copper and iron demand
• S&P Global: July PMI data shows “Goldilocks” as competition slows price increases
• New and existing home sales miss estimates in June.
  • Redfin sees record cancellations of purchases
• Bank of America: Last week had most stock outflows since 2015 among its customers
• Activist investors target SBUX, MAT

Using the Platform

“2-Period Changes” custom indicator included in zip file can display price changes in 2 different time periods on RadarScreen™. This can illustrate changes before and after key moments.

• start_days: Set to beginning of earlier period
• end_days: Set to beginning of later period
• Expressed in bars before the present

Potential application for illustrating rotation in 2H:

• Copy some or all “Key ETFs” into a new RadarScreen
• Change time frame to Monthly by selecting all and clicking on Timeframe menu
• Set start days to 7: Measures change from 7 to 1 month ago (i.e. 1H)
• Set end days to 1: Measures change from 1 month ago to now (i.e. 2H)

Upcoming Events

• Fri 7/26:PCE
  • Earnings: AXP 
• Mon 7/29:
  • Earnings: MCD
• Tue 7/30: Consumer confidence
  • Earnings: MSFT AMD PYPL MRK
• Wed 7/31: Crude-oil inventories, *FOMC*
  • Earnings: META QCOM LRCX
• Thu 8/1: OPEC+ meeting, jobless claims, unit labor costs, ISM manufacturing

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.