Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 trendline breakout improves weekly technicals.
• Potential resistance around 4500-4515:
  • Weekly peak from late April 2022
  • September 2021 high
  • Monthly highs for August, September of this year
• Potential support around 4444 (September 19 close)
• RSI nearing overbought. Stochastics are overbought.
• Numbers of S&P 500 members above 20-, 50-day MAs rising. (This historically marks beginning of positive move.)
• Potential for tight consolidation between 4444 and 4515
• Soft landing belief spreads. Broader sentiment improvement may last into election year.

Key News

• October CPI 0%, core +0.2%. Both 0.1 point under estimates. Shelter, vehicles ease.
• October PPI -0.5% vs -0.1% est. m-o-m change was lowest since April 2020.
• October Retail sales beat estimates for 4th straight month.
• November Empire index: shipments improve, delivery times and orders fall. (Consistent with lower inflation.)
• China industrial production beats estimates as PBoC adds stimulus
• Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed): U.S. could have record peacetime drop in inflation
• Tom Lee of Fundstrat: Stock breadth to widen as shelter drop breaks inflation trend.
  • Likes small caps, Nasdaq, industrials
• Max Kettner of HSBC: Consensus earnings are too low for S&P 500
  • (Earnings estimates for 2023 have risen for 4 straight weeks.)
• S&P Global Risk Appetite Index to highest in about 2 years on Fed pause optimism.
• Tech news:
  • Intel (INTC) upgraded by Mizuho on PCs, data center.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) cuts revenue guidance as orders weaken
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) cuts billings outlook
    • Follows weak report by cybersecurity peer Fortinet (FTNT)

Sector Watch

• Housing, regional banks rebound as rates fall.
• Chips, tech recover before Biden-Xi meeting.
• Airlines, solar energy bounce from major selloffs
• Groups with year-to-date relative strength:
  • Electronic manufacturing: CLS, JBL, FLEX
  • HVAC: FIX, TT, CARR, AAON
  • Bulk materials: CX, JELD, CRH, MLM
  • Private-equity: KKR, BX, APO
• Health care, energy lag

Mover of the Week: GoDaddy

• Web-hosting company beats estimates amid cost cuts, buybacks
• Nearing top of 5-year consolidation range
• GDDY + 22% YTD, with all of gain in the last two weeks

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: AMAT, GPS
• Fri 11/17: Housing starts / Building permits
• (Next week data shift for Thanksgiving)
• Tues 11/21: Fed minutes
  • Pre-market earnings: LOW, BIDU, BBY, ADI
  • Post-market earnings: NVDA, HPQ
• Wed 11/22: Jobless claims, consumer sentiment, durable goods
  • Pre-market earnings: DE
• Thur 11/23: Thanksgiving
• Fri 11/24: OPEC meeting, 1pm market close.

Using the Platform

Scanning for “non-index runners”:

• Symbol Universe tab:
  • Symbols to Include: All Stocks
  • Symbols to Exclude:
    • TradeStation Symbol Lists → Index Components → S&P Indexes → S&P 500 Index
    • TradeStation Symbol Lists → Index Components → Nasdaq Indexes → Nasdaq 100 Index
• Scan Criteria tab:
  • Price → % of 52w Wk High/Low > 75
  • Price → %Chg → %Chg(5day)<100
  • Price → %Chg → %Chg(10day)<100
  • Indicator → Days Since 52wk HL (High) < 10
  • Indicator → Industry <> “”
  • Volume → Vol Avg (10 day) > 250000
    • Optional
  • Capitalization → Market Capitalization (Mil) > 1000
    • Optional

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