Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 rebounds from mid-May weekly support.
• Current bounce may lead to August low or falling trendline.
• Several potential levels at play in difficult range-bound environment.
• 1-2 weeks of consolidation may be needed to break intermediate-term downtrend.
• 10-year Treasury yield may provide clues on market direction.

Key News

• Fed makes little changes in latest meeting.
• Treasury to increase the size of long-bond auctions slightly less than expected.
• ADP private sector payrolls grow less than expected, wage increases (changers and stayers) at 2-year lows.
• October ISM manufacturing misses as orders, employment fall.
• EIA crude oil inventories rise less than feared. Reuters says refiners are worried about lower gasoline demand.
• Consumer confidence beat estimates in October for the 1st time since July. Respondents more optimistic about selves than others.
  • Consumer sentiment was also unexpectedly revised up.
• August Case Shiller home price index rises 1% vs 0.7% estimate.
• Tom Lee of Fundstrat: Stocks could break “doom loop.”
• Odds of 12/13 rate hike drop from 29% to 22.5% after Fed meeting.
• Reuters: INTC, AMD results suggest PC market is recovering
  • Echoes 10/9 report by Gartner
• Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital sees rates falling as economy slows

Sector Watch

• REITs rebound, following utility bounce, amid hopes that yields have peaked
• Homebuilders trying to bounce as yields inch lower
• Latin American stocks trying to stabilize after August declines
• Energy continues to lag
• Precious metals weak despite lower rates. Less fear?

Signals Scan

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) holds 50-day MA
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) holds 50-day MA
• Dell Technologies (DELL) holds 50-day MA
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) potentially breaking 200-day MA
• Coca Cola (KO) hits falling 50-day MA 
• Will crude oil futures (@CL) make a lower low after 10/20 lower high?

Mover of the Week: Deckers Outdoor

• Maker of UGG, Teva footwear
• Benefiting from direct-to-consumer model after embracing Google Marketing Platform
• Jumped to new record high after earnings, sales and guidance beat estimates on 10/26
• DECK +49% YTD

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: AAPL, MNST, FTNT
• Tomorrow (11/3): Non-farm payrolls
• Next week: Fedspeak resumes
• Wednesday (11/8): Crude oil inventories

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