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Market Pulse | Market Trends | Stocks
Stocks Narrow as Traders Expect Fed Pause: Market Trends Today
David Russell
September 19, 2023

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 in neutral range before the Fed
  • Bias may be to upside given:
    • 50% retracement of move from 8/18 through 9/1
    • More index members above 20-day MA than above 50-day MA
    • Faster MAs mostly above slower MAs
    • Sentiment measures show falling bearishness, increased neutrality
    • Earnings estimates rising on S&P 500 for first time in 2 years: FactSet
  • Risks:
    • Historically low VIX
    • Treasury yields near multiyear highs
  • Potential support at 4444: 8/11 low near June high
  • Potential resistance at 4528: Low from 7/20 and 7/27
  • Potential resistance at falling trendline
  • Long term: Stocks holding above August 2022 high in June and August
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Sector Watch

  • Energy leading over most intermediate time frames, now positive on year
  • Precious metals gaining in last month
  • Software makers gaining versus semiconductors
    • Cybersecurity leading
  • Financials gaining after “Golden Cross”
  • Safe havens lag:
    • Consumer staples
    • Health care
    • Utilities still lag on YTD basis, but are rebounding before the Fed.

Key News

  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment falls again as mortgage rates overwhelm house shortage
  • Apple (AAPL) bull Dan Ives of Wedbush: iPhone 15 demand “strong out of the gates.”
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) planning AI tool for financial advisers to reports and documents
  • IEA sees “significant supply shortfall” in crude oil following latest OPEC+ cuts

Upcoming Events

  • Wednesday (9/20): Oil inventories, Fed meeting w/Dot Plot
    • Earnings: GIS (premarket), FDX (postmarket)
  • Thursday (9/21): Jobless claims
  • Tuesday (9/26): Consumer confidence
  • Early October (date N/A): Tesla (TSLA) deliveries

Using the Platform

Backtesting strategies 

Starting on TradeStation’s Chart Analysis:

  • Studies ? Add Strategies…
    • Select from large number of prebuilt long/short strategies using RSI, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR and more
    • Ensure strategies are turned on, including entries and exits
  • Data ? Strategy Performance Report to analyze
  • Studies ? Edit Strategies…
    • Click on individual strategies to change settings and to optimize

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+13.86%+55.13%+175.19%
As of Aug. 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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