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Tech Languishes Before CPI: Market Trends This Week
David Russell
August 10, 2023

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 trying to hold 7/12 closing price.
  • Momentum weakens as 10-day MA falls but longer-term uptrend remains.
    • Bearish outside days on 7/27 and 8/4
  • Potential resistance at 4528
  • Dip buyers may wait for 50-day MA into Labor Day.
S&P 500, daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Sector Watch

  • Energy leading this quarter as crude oil climbs to 10-month high.
    • Oil-field services, refiners, coal miners
  • Technology lagging this quarter
  • Small caps, DJIA leading, Nasdaq lagging
  • Healthcare / pharma jump on LLY, AMGN results

Key News

  • Platts survey: OPEC+ production at 2-year low after most recent Saudi cuts.
  • San Francisco Fed: Shelter inflation could go negative in 2024
  • Recession debate:
    • JPMorgan no longer expects recession
    • Jefferies says recession is “almost inevitable.”
  • Fedspeak:
    • Michelle Bowman: “Additional rate increases will likely be needed.”
    • John Williams: “Need to keep a restrictive stance for some time.”
    • Patrick Harker: “We may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”

Mover of the Week: Penn National

  • Earnings, revenue beat on 8/9
  • Forms sports-betting partnership with ESPN
  • Parts with Dave Portnoy & Barstool Sports
  • Potential transformation story

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (8/10): PPI, consumer sentiment
  • Tuesday (8/15): Retail sales, NAHB housing index
    • Earnings: HD
  • Wednesday (8/16): Oil inventories, Housing starts/permits, Fed minutes
    • Earnings: TGT, CSCO
  • Thursday (8/17): Jobless claims
    • Earnings: WMT, AMAT

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About the author

David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.