Market Insights

Downloads are available here. (New zip file this week.)

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 potentially overbought but few apparent reversal signals
• Bullish outside candle last week
• 10-day MA rising for 27 days, longest streak since February
• Potential resistance above 4500
• Potential support at 4400
• Index members above 20-day MA still exceed number above 50-day MA
• S&P 500 in midst of low-volatility drift, which potentially favors stock picking over index trades

Key News

• CME Fed expectations little changed since 6/14 meeting
• Tom Lee raises S&P 500 forecast to 4825. Sees inflation fading, AI boosting tech.
• Katie Stockon targets 4510 on the S&P 500
• Inflation cooling?
  • S&P Global: PMI Price index drop at fastest pace in 3 years
  • ISM manufacturing misses estimates, prices drop
  • CNBC: GM Q2 sales growth suggests supply-chain normalcy
• June consumer sentiment revised higher amid “striking upswing”

Chart Notes

• Visa May Be Attempting a Breakout
• Chevron Could Be Squeezing from its Lows
• Salesforce Has Been Snoozing
• Lower high for Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX)
• Mastercard (MA) tests new highs (earnings 7/27)
• Oracle (ORCL) holds post-earnings gap
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) nears 200-day MA
• Boeing (BA) holds 50-, 100-day MAs after bullish inside week (earnings 7/26)
• Crude oil futures (@CL) close above 50-day MA

Mover of the Week: Trade Desk

• Ad-management software for new digital ecosystem
• Earnings, revenue beat last three quarters
• Sitting at 50% recovery from drop November 2021 to July 2022
• Potential bullish triangle at August 2022 high
• TTD + 72% YTD

Upcoming Events

• Friday (7/7): Non-farm payrolls
• Wednesday (7/12): CPI
• Thursday (7/13): PPI
  • Earnings: DAL, PEP
• Friday (7/14): Consumer sentiment
  • Earnings: JPM, C, UNH, WFC, UNH

Using the Platform

Hourly active chart uses several indicators and ShowMes

• Directional signals:
  • MACD cross days: Positive readings show MACD rising
    • Note: MACD has special settings to emulate daily signals
  • MovAvg Order: 50-hour MA vs 100-hour MA
  • New 52-week highs (white crosses on chart)
• Overbought/oversold signals:
  • RSI
  • Keltner pullback
    • Note: Updated from previous zip files

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.